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TSMC Q3: revenue is already out. Margins are not

Add up July–September monthly sales and you get NT$1,494.2B, about 2% above the top of guidance. On Thursday Oct 15 the number to watch is margin, not revenue.

Words & numbers by Cast · 3 min read

NT$1,494.2 billion.

That's TSMC's July, August and September revenue added together. It lands about 2% above the top of the Q3 guidance the company gave in July.

So by Thursday's call (Oct 15), revenue is effectively known. One question is left: how much of it did they keep?

※ Based on TSMC's official releases as of Oct 11, 2026 (KST). Not investment advice.

What's inside

  • Q3 revenue from three monthly reports
  • How it compares with guidance
  • The Q2 scorecard, revisited
  • Why margins are the real question
  • A five-item checklist for Thursday

1. Three monthly reports make a quarter

TSMC publishes the previous month's revenue around the 10th of every month. That lets you add up the quarter before the earnings call.

  • July: NT$467.58B
  • August: NT$514.81B
  • September: NT$511.86B (−0.6% vs August, +54.6% vs a year ago)

Together that's NT$1,494.24B. That's 50.9% more than Q3 2025 (NT$989.92B) and 17.6% more than Q2 2026 (NT$1,270.38B).

July–September revenue next to the same months a year ago. All three are up more than 40%.
July–September revenue next to the same months a year ago. All three are up more than 40%.

September did dip 0.6% from August. It was still 54.6% higher than a year earlier. Year-to-date revenue through September reached NT$3,898.73B, up 41.1%.

2. Against guidance: about 2% above the top

In July, TSMC guided Q3 revenue to US$44.6–45.8B, assuming 32 NT$ per US dollar.

At that rate, the range is NT$1,427.2–1,465.6B. The monthly sum of NT$1,494.2B sits about 2.0% above the top.

Q3 revenue (sum of monthly reports) against the company's guidance range. Conversion by cast_otter.
Q3 revenue (sum of monthly reports) against the company's guidance range. Conversion by cast_otter.

That conversion is ours. If the actual Q3 average exchange rate was away from 32, the US-dollar revenue TSMC reports, and the "vs guidance" gap, can come out different.

3. The Q2 scorecard, revisited

Here's the baseline.

  • Revenue NT$1,270.38B, +36% year over year
  • Gross margin 67.7%, operating margin 60.3%
  • Net income NT$706.56B, net margin 55.6%, EPS NT$27.25
TSMC's Q2 income flow, drawn with the cast_otter Earnings Card Maker. Operating expenses shown net of other operating income.
TSMC's Q2 income flow, drawn with the cast_otter Earnings Card Maker. Operating expenses shown net of other operating income.

One thing to flag. Q2 net income included NT$95.83B of non-operating gains. NT$63.20B of that was a gain on the disposal and remeasurement of TSMC's VIS stake. When you put Q3 next to Q2, operating income is the cleaner comparison.

4. Margins are the real question

TSMC's Q3 margin guidance:

Gross margin 65–67%, operating margin 56–58%

That's below Q2's 67.7% and 60.3%. The company pointed to dilution from overseas fabs and the steep ramp of its 2nm process.

Margins a year ago, last quarter and this quarter's guidance
Margins a year ago, last quarter and this quarter's guidance

Apply the guided margins to the monthly revenue sum and you get rough ranges. These are cast_otter calculations.

  • Gross profit: NT$971.3–1,001.1B
  • Operating income: NT$836.8–866.7B

A year ago, the Q3 operating margin was 50.6%. Even the bottom of guidance would mean more than 5 points of expansion in a year. So the thing to watch on Thursday is where in the range the margins land.

5. Checklist for Thursday, 15:00 KST

The call is on Thursday, Oct 15, at 14:00 Taiwan time (15:00 KST). TSMC has been in its quiet period since Oct 5, running through Oct 14.

  1. Gross margin: where in 65–67%, and how far down from Q2's 67.7%.
  2. Operating margin: where in 56–58%, and whether the revenue beat shows up as operating leverage.
  3. Overseas-fab dilution: any update on how big it is.
  4. 2nm ramp: revenue share, yields and cost commentary.
  5. Q4 guidance: revenue, margins and the exchange rate assumption.

When the numbers land, the earnings card gets redrawn first. Numbers first.

Sources

Run these numbers yourselfEarnings Card MakerRevenue to net income on one card: see where the money went. Export sized for X and Instagram.
Everything on castotter.com is for information only and is not investment advice. We check numbers against public filings, but mistakes can happen. Your decisions are your own.

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