ASML Q3: the bar is already set high

€11.0–12.0 billion.

That's the Q3 net sales guidance ASML gave in July. It's 18–29% above Q2 (€9.326B) and 46–60% above Q3 last year (€7.516B).

TSMC's revenue showed up early in its monthly reports. ASML's arrives this Wednesday, Oct 14. The bar is already high, so every number will be measured against it.

※ Based on ASML's official releases as of Oct 11, 2026 (KST). Not investment advice.

What's inside

• Recent quarterly sales and the Q3 guide
• A full-year guide that moved €9B in six months
• Gross margin, up every quarter
• Orders and capacity
• A checklist for Wednesday

1. Quarterly sales: one step higher

The last four quarters:

• Q3'25: €7.516B
• Q4'25: €9.718B
• Q1'26: €8.767B
• Q2'26: €9.326B

Q3 guidance is €11.0–12.0B. Even the bottom of that range would top every quarter above. The biggest so far was Q4'25 at €9.718B.

2. The full-year guide moved €9B in six months

In January, ASML guided 2026 net sales to €34–39B at a 51–53% gross margin.

In July it raised that to €43–45B at 54–56%. That would be 32–38% above 2025's €32.667B.

H1 sales were €18.093B. Hitting the full-year range needs €24.9–26.9B in H2. Subtract the Q3 guide (€11–12B) and Q4 has to deliver €12.9–15.9B. These are cast_otter calculations.

3. Gross margin: up every quarter

• Q3'25 51.6% → Q4'25 52.2% → Q1'26 53.0% → Q2'26 54.0%
• Q3'26 guidance: 55–57%

Q2 gross profit was €5.035B and net income €2.918B. The Q3 guide also includes R&D of about €1.2B and SG&A of about €0.4B. If sales land in range, revenue grows much faster than those costs.

4. Orders and capacity: what changed

Through 2025, the press releases showed quarterly net bookings: €5.399B in Q3'25 and €13.158B in Q4'25 (of which €7.4B EUV). The backlog at end-2025 was €38.797B.

The 2026 quarterly tables no longer show a net bookings line. Instead, the company described H1 order intake in words:

"Order intake remained extremely strong in H1"

The capacity plan does come with numbers:

• Low-NA EUV: about 65 systems in 2026, +30% planned for 2027 (about 85, our calculation), and another +30% being investigated for 2028
• DUV immersion: +30% from about 130

5. Checklist for Wednesday

Results are due Wednesday, Oct 14. Third-party calendars list 07:00 CEST (14:00 KST). We couldn't confirm the time on ASML's own pages.

1. Sales: where in €11.0–12.0B.
2. Gross margin: where in 55–57%, and whether the quarter-by-quarter climb continues.
3. Q4 guidance: the full-year range implies €12.9–15.9B.
4. Orders: whether bookings come back as a number or stay as a sentence.
5. 2027: whether the capacity plan (low-NA EUV +30%) holds.

When results land, these same charts get filled in with the actual numbers.

Sources

• ASML, Q2 2026 results release (2026-07-15; Q3 and FY2026 guidance, capacity plans): https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-results
• ASML, Q1 2026, Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 results releases (sales, gross margin, net income, net bookings): https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases
• ASML, full-year 2025 results (2025 sales, backlog, January 2026 guidance): https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases
• Posts embedded from ASML's official X account, @ASMLcompany
• H2/Q4 implied sales and growth rates are cast_otter calculations. The 07:00 CEST release time comes from third-party calendars and was not confirmed on ASML's site.

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